2025 Ecological Threat Report (ETR).
The 2025 Ecological Threat Report (ETR) is a comprehensive, data-driven global assessment of ecological risks . It covers 3,125 sub-national areas in 172 countries and territories, representing more than 99 per cent of the world’s population. It measures four interlocking threats: water risk, food insecurity, the impact of natural events, and demographic pressure. The main finding of this year’s report is the unexpected and sometimes divergent relationships between water and conflict. On the one hand, it finds that conflict death rates are 50 per cent higher in places where water stress is rising owing to heightened rainfall seasonality. On the other, it highlights how there have been no interstate wars fought over water in the modern era. In this regard, the hundreds of active freshwater treaties around the world demonstrate that strategic cooperation is effective when the downside risks are well-known , similar to nuclear non-proliferation treaties. Precipitation patterns are shi...