Focus on Food Insecurity.

 

The ETR food insecurity indicator measures the likelihood that people will have sufficient food, considering availability, accessibility, affordability, and the risks posed by conflict and violence to supply chains. The indicator examines both national conditions and subnational disparities, capturing overall food supply, household purchasing power, and the effects of inequality and conflict, which disrupt markets and restrict people’s ability to obtain food. As of 2024, the ETR identifies 208 subnational areas with very high levels of food insecurity and a further 696 with high risk levels, representing nearly a third of all subnational areas. Furthermore, around three billion people currently reside in medium risk areas, making up approximately 39 per cent of the global population.

 

Complementing these findings, the FAO estimates that between 638 and 720 million people experienced hunger in 2024, with the largest shares in Africa and Asia. Around 28 per cent of the global population faced moderate or severe food insecurity. As shown in Figure 1.11, there are significant disparities in ETR food insecurity scores: sub-Saharan Africa recorded the worst scores and is home to more than half of the global population living in very high risk areas. In South Asia, food insecurity is also pronounced: 82 per cent of the population resides in medium risk areas, and the region is the only one without any subnational areas classified as low or very low risk. By contrast, Western and Central Europe is the only region classified as low risk and has no subnational areas classified as high or very high risk. Nearly 92 per cent of its population is considered very low risk, with only small shares residing in low to medium risk areas.

As shown in Table 1.3, the highest levels of food insecurity tend to be seen in fragile and conflict-affected countries. Somalia and South Sudan recorded the most severe conditions, followed by the Central African Republic and Afghanistan. In each of these cases, protracted conflict has directly disrupted food systems. In South Sudan, fighting around key agricultural areas such as Jonglei and Upper Nile has disrupted harvests and displaced farming communities. Ongoing clashes along the Nile and Sobat rivers have blocked river transport, cut off humanitarian access, and prevented vital food aid from reaching tens of thousands of people in Upper Nile, where malnutrition rates are among the highest in the country. In Afghanistan, heavy reliance on imported staples such as wheat flour and cooking oil has been compounded by restrictions on aid delivery and insecurity along transport corridors. Humanitarian agencies report that evolving regulations and political interference continue to delay or block assistance, leaving vulnerable populations with limited access to basic food supplies.

 

Food insecurity has increased around the world since 2019, with most regions deteriorating, as shown in Figure 1.12. The greatest deteriorations were concentrated in the Middle East and North Africa, which registered more than twice the rate of decline of Asia-Pacific, the second worst-affected region. Many of these changes are attributable to the COVID-19 pandemic, which disrupted global food production and supply chains, leading to sharp increases in food prices and widespread market volatility. The average cost of a healthy diet was estimated to reach 4.46 PPP dollars per person per day in 2024, an increase of more than 35 per cent over the past five years. These shocks pushed millions into food insecurity, reversing years of progress in reducing hunger and leaving many low-income households particularly vulnerable. However, following the sharp setbacks seen at the height of the pandemic, most countries have at least partially recovered. Since 2021, 122 have improved in food security while only 50 have deteriorated. Moreover, those hardest hit during the height of the pandemic have tended to record the strongest rebounds. For example, Rwanda and Malawi recorded the 11th and 24th steepest deteriorations in food insecurity scores between 2019 and 2021, but they recorded the largest improvements over the past three years. Notably, the ten biggest recoveries have all occurred in low- and middle-income countries. This underscores both that wealthier countries were comparatively less affected during the crisis and that their subsequent bounce-backs have been more modest. And while progress has been achieved in the past three years, it has generally been uneven, and most places have not seen returns to pre-pandemic conditions.

As a net food-importing region, the Middle East and North Africa has a structural reliance on imported staples, especially wheat and vegetable oils, which amplified its exposure to global price spikes, exchange-rate pressures, and supply-chain disruptions. Western and Central Europe was also among the regions to deteriorate in food security, which is striking given that it recorded the largest regional improvement in water risk score. This divergence reflects that changes in the food insecurity indicator are closely tied to economic conditions and food affordability, while water risk is shaped more directly by shifting rainfall patterns. In poorer and more agrarian countries, rainfall disruptions would tend to affect food production directly and therefore have a much stronger impact on food security outcomes. But in wealthier countries – particularly those with an overall abundance of water – climate shocks may have less direct impacts, as these economies possess greater coping capacity and can draw on imports or infrastructure to buffer against local shortages. Despite the significant impacts of the pandemic, average levels of food insecurity eased in the Americas, particularly in the Central and North America region. Of the ten countries to register the largest improvements in food insecurity scores between 2019 and 2024, five were in Latin America. Given that the ETR food insecurity indicator incorporates both economic conditions and societal dynamics that shape reliable access to food, much of these gains were tied to economic stabilisation efforts. Policy- and price-level measures – including inflation moderation and exchange rate stabilisation after the 2021–22 commodity shock, targeted subsidies for staples, grain reserves, and diversification of imports – underpinned improvements. Such examples highlight how recovery can be supported by decisive governmental action to stabilise food prices and ensure continuity of agricultural production and trade. Venezuela recorded the largest single gain. However, this comes off a high baseline caused by hyperinflation and food shortages associated with a particularly acute period in the country’s ongoing socioeconomic and political crisis. Even in less extreme cases, Peru, Costa Rica, Bolivia, and El Salvador also ranked among the top ten, supported by tighter price management, smoother logistics, and steadier imports. In El Salvador’s case, plummeting rates of lethal violence further contributed to an improvement in score by easing conflict-related pressures on food systems and supply chains.

These patterns align with FAO estimates, which indicate that Latin America has experienced the largest recovery of any region in food security globally since the pandemic. The prevalence of food insecurity rose from 26 per cent in 2019 to 31.9 per cent in 2021, before falling to 23.3 per cent in 2024. In absolute terms, the number of people facing moderate or severe food insecurity climbed from 156 million in 2019 to 193.5 million in 2021, but has since dropped by nearly 50 million, to 144 million in 2024. Within this group, the number of undernourished people – a subset of food insecurity characterised by caloric deficiencies – has also steadily declined, from 29.1 million in 2019 to 25.9 million in 2024. Improvements were visible across all Latin American subregions, though most dramatic in South America, where the prevalence of food insecurity fell by nearly ten percentage points between 2021 and 2024. At the national level, Somalia has consistently recorded the highest levels of food insecurity over the past five years. However, the steepest deteriorations between 2019 and 2024 were observed in Lebanon, Botswana, and Colombia. In Lebanon, food insecurity rose as a result of a prolonged financial crisis that precipitated extreme inflation and the collapse of the national currency, pushing food prices beyond the reach of many households. Botswana’s deterioration was linked to an extreme agricultural drought of the past few years, during which crop yields fell sharply and more than ten per cent of the population faced food and nutrition insecurity. And in Colombia, food insecurity worsened as persistent armed violence and widespread displacement severely disrupted agricultural production and supply chains, intensifying existing vulnerabilities across the country.

 Vulnerability Global food price inflation accelerated from late 2020, peaking at more than 14 per cent in January 2023 before moderating, though prices remain above pre-pandemic levels. Food prices rose faster than overall consumer prices, intensifying pressure on net foodimporting countries. In sub-Saharan Africa, where food accounts for 50 to 60 per cent of household spending, these increases directly reduced dietary adequacy.

As shown in Figure 1.13, the number of undernourished people increased sharply from 584 million in 2019 to a more than ten-year high of 697 million in 2021, before easing slightly to an estimated 673 million in 2024.35 While this indicates some recovery, global levels remain well above those of 2019, suggesting a lasting upward shift. The prevalence of undernourishment has stabilised at around eight to nine per cent of the world’s population, compared with 7.5 per cent before the pandemic. Comparable trends are apparent in the FAO’s measures of global food insecurity. Around the world, the share of people experiencing moderate or severe food insecurity climbed from 25 per cent in 2019 to nearly 29 per cent in 2020-2021, before dropping only marginally to 28 per cent in 2024. In absolute terms, the number of food-insecure people rose by more than 300 million between 2019 and 2021, reaching almost 2.3 billion, and has remained at roughly that level since. Of these, 797.2 million were in sub-Saharan Africa and 791.1 million were in South Asia, each therefore accounting for roughly 35 per cent of the total. In such settings, gains made in nutrition and food security over the past two decades are particularly fragile. As many wealthy nations have announced and begun implementing cuts to Official Development Assistance (ODA) around the world, there are rising risks that not only could further improvements be halted, but higher levels of food insecurity could become entrenched worldwide. This elevated baseline is compounded by conflict-related shocks. Ongoing crises in Sudan, Gaza, and Ukraine continue to disrupt supply chains and agricultural production, displace populations, and restrict humanitarian access. These disruptions are not fully captured in conventional measures but are contributing to persistent and in some cases crisis levels of hunger.