Ecological Deteriotion in Central-West Brazil.

 


Between 2019 and 2024, Brazil’s Central-West region recorded some of the world’s sharpest deteriorations in overall ETR score, aggravated by exceptionally bad wildfires in 2024. The region encompasses the states of Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul, and Goiás, with Mato Grosso registering the second largest increase in ecological threat of any subnational area worldwide (after Manouba in Tunisia). Rising risks of natural events, water scarcity, and food insecurity have driven much of this deterioration. The impact of natural events was most severe in Mato Grosso, which recorded the largest deterioration nationwide since 2019. In 2024, the state experienced an exceptionally severe wildfire season, with nearly 3,900 hotspots detected in the Pantanal biome during the first half of the year – more than 16 times the number observed in the same period of 2023.6 These fires burned over 7,200 square kilometres in Mato Grosso and neighbouring Mato Grosso do Sul, the worst conditions ever recorded in the region for the first half of the year. While global average temperatures have exceeded 1.5°C above preindustrial levels, temperatures in the Pantanal have risen by 3-4°C in recent decades, greatly intensifying fire risk. Despite Brazil’s overall progress in reducing water risk, Mato Grosso recorded the second largest deterioration nationally. This increase was driven by a prolonged drought between 2019 and 2022,7 alongside policy changes that ended a moratorium on soybean expansion and removed forest protections to help facilitate faster agricultural growth. As Brazil’s largest soybean-producing state, Mato Grosso has seen rising water demands from its agricultural sector, placing further pressure on limited freshwater resources in the region. The state has also experienced a marked decline in food security, the largest nationally. Poverty rates across Brazil have remained close to 25 per cent, but moderate to severe food insecurity increased from 20.5% in 2020 to 28.4 per cent as of 2022. Conditions are even more severe in rural states like Mato Grosso, where food insecurity is 1.2 times higher than in urban centres. These pressures have been exacerbated by a 37.5 per cent rise in national food prices compared with pre-pandemic levels.

Location: Brazil

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